1.15.24 The Song Remains the Same
SPY QQQ UNH VIX TSLA Davos China CES Yemen
Well that was fun, another week and the books and while we are not exactly in the middle, we sure as hell are stuck… With that said, the song remains the same… ya i know… but try convincing me the Jokers and Clowns aren't playing stink finger under the supervision of the Thief.
So what Happened?
Essentially we chose the road higher for now. Monday saw one of those head scratchers of 7 straight hours of unadulterated buying, it was damn near pornographic to see 7 straight monster green candles across the market, followed by what I would call a melt up and consolidation to close the week. The move was dramatic in many ways and caught me off guard. It shouldn't have, flow on Monday from open was straight bull banging every techcentric mega cap on the planet to the upside with the exception of $TSLA… I firmly believe this was fueled by CES and the BTC ETF approval. Everyone should add CES to their calendar moving forward the event moves markets.
What I think I think I saw:
There still appeared to be a strong desire to push the markets higher, but as the week wore on the reasons for more upside seemed to dwindle: Data while solid for the economy, did not support a March rate cut, shenanigans in the Red Sea while seemingly trivial for now poked holes into the supply chain with TSLA closing a factory for a few weeks and transport companies avoiding the area, followed by banks reporting well well, just far from spectacular considering their respective runs.
Flow that caught my eye: Flow ahead of ER’s can be a chaotic hodgepodge. There are large bets being placed by bulls and bears and hedges both to the upside and downside. It's a blast to watch these massive lines move around and while the balance is to the upside and further dated I personally do not give it too much thought. Winners and losers will be created over the next several weeks. The key for me will be watching flow for intra day and weekly directionals. The only thing that really jumped out to me was activity coming back into the VIX, last week's note about it being too docile and my only real concern is slowly becoming more of a concern. My UNH call was excellent, too bad I didn't play it… what a dope….
Charts: We are quickly approaching the upside of the channel we were stuck in, do we take it? More importantly, can we hold it? No clue.
SPY: Closed 476.68 Needs to take and hold 478+ Must reclaim any dips below 472 ish
QQQ: Closed 409.56 Needs to take and hold 411 for Bull to punch higher. 404ish is important to hold, below that and it could get flushy.
What I will be watching: Looking for bottoming flow on TSLA for an upside ER gamble. Weakness in banks and semis to play the short side. Headlines out of Davos, already the tone of rate cuts in March are being flushed away with the summer being the consensus among speakers thus far. Data: CPI out of Canada and the EU. China data dump this week and as I am writing this the Hang is gripping to support on the weekly, XI knows he needs to step in, the question will be is it enough? Taiwan elections probably has him in a bad mood. Retail flow going into retail data this week, Could definitely be an opportunity AMZN, COST, WMT(short bias on these names for the moment). Iowa election results, still early but worth watching.
Gambling man thinks we risk off a bit, and will use Tuesday flow to pick a direction. We may just chop, for me it's a bit of a guessing game and want confirmation from flow and The RoadHouse Crew. However Gamblin man did place a couple of bets last week, he is long UVXY and Short JPM through the 26th.
Things that made me happy: Pete Davidson Special on NFLX, Brothers Sun NFLX, Cowboys losing and Jerry being sad. A squall, it's legit like a snownado, super cool especially how the Sun came out after.
Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.
HellsBells Cofounder The Roadhouse NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: If you find this information useful and would like live market play by play please dm me @ hellsbells@substack.com https://twitter.com/HellsBellsBBS