2.25.24 Underlined text have links to content and sources
To the song they're playin' on the radio
If you don't have some red shoes, I suggest you find some, maybe a mouth guard while you're at it, why? Because they are playing that song on the radio, the one that many of us have heard before…
I heard this song a few days ago and it's been ringing in my head like church bells for those that need to repent.. Did you know this song was about boxing? I didn't either, but if you didn't dance or box the past couple of weeks, you most likely will test your abilities one way or the other relatively soon. So with no further ado… LET'S DANCE!!
The week that was:
Limited Econ data other than global CPI’s coming in where they should
NVDA and Semi’s leading the way once again
Bitcoin and Crypto consolidating
New All Time Highs
Market Squeeze off NVDA ER
Fed minutes revealing nothing new, but was a good excuse to grab liquidity
What I got Wrong:
Other than AMZN and Meta traditional Mega Cap went nowhere
Hook or Crooks lines were limited and my execution was trash on GOOGL
HD ER- piss poor numbers in my opinion, but still didn't stop it from popping…. got the numbers about right, got the price action wrong
What I got Right:
SPY 503 calls came in late in the day on Tuesday for Wed exp ahead of NVDA ER. I suggested to the room to buy an extra day, they did and logged nice gains, I didn't and lost a few bucks
Trading NQ futures like a mad man, was having a great week already but Bender brought it home for me with an exceptional short off of Friday's top. When Bender puts on a conviction trade, which is rare the dude is unstoppable. Love trading futures, it's been very helpful in balancing options and equity positions
SPOT GOLD and China trade continue to show promise both putting in nice weekly candles
Flow:
Tale of 2 coins, neutral to bearish before NVDA ER, neutral after the squeeze
ARM Bull activity
XLI Bear activity
Early week bear flow on GOLD Miners, late week Bull Flow
SBUX bullish activity
CART Bull Flow, hat tip to TLMAB for this. Also, He was kind enough to post his Options Guide, check it out here.
DELL rare Bull activity, they have a conference and ER
Bull Activity in China Names, BIDU reports this week
What I think I think:
NVDA is indeed the God of the Markets as of now. Its dominance while setting the pace for the semis sector has been beyond many traders' comprehension. Even late Friday when it looked like the entire market was set to roll over, SMH held steady and strong, limiting the downside. My thoughts on this rally continue to play hard on my mind. Maybe it shouldn't and I should just take it as it comes, but that song on the radio keeps playing on loop.
Federales:
The joke of all government institutions that isn't a government institution, continues to say nothing. While they acknowledge consumer debt and delinquencies, their 2% target seems beyond unrealistic. Unless you do one of 2 things, destroy the economy or force McDonalds to lower QP prices and for SBUX to lower theirs also, the entire concept of demand destruction which was their plan speaks to how out of touch this group actually is. Do they even understand the concept of margin expansion while they pontificate a 2% target?
Waller’s speech on the 22nd “What's The Rush” was abhorrent(link). The clown has the audacity to actually ask what's the rush, when historically The Fed has been late to everything it's ever done. And if I am being fair, nearly everything they have done over the last 5+ years has been reactionary instead of proactive. But ya what's the rush… especially when you can fail over and over again with no repercussions. But no worries, there is a boomer somewhere carrying their water because they are still trapped in the 80’s; thinking outside the box for them is learning how to clear the cookies on their computer.
What I will be watching:
DPZ earnings, decent bellwether
LI and BIDU ER’s China Flow is picking up pace, price action on these will be important
Crypto Flow- slight weakness Friday, possible pull back on this consolidation
Federales Domestic and Global speaking all week long
Rate decision in New Zealand,
Consumer ER’s LOWS, BUD, DPZ, AZO guidance and price action
AAPL Investor Conference
Bill and Note auctions, excellent excuses for liquidation breaks and liquidity grabs
China PMI- is the bottom in?
Global CPI’s Japan and EU; will they front run the Fed rate cut? This weeks data will be important
Domestic Data- GDP, Home Sales, ISM, all important components to what's next
Levels I will be Watching:
SMH- Above 210 is a potential breakout however looking for 206 to act as first real support, it get sketchy under that and 200 ish would immediately be on watch. Flow is very neutral post NVDA ER
SPY- 510 breakout potential, however 505 ish becomes important support, lose that and it again becomes very sketchy with 500 and 497 being critical support with heavy dark pools in play. 507 seems like a bull bear Pivot
QQQ- Same set up as with SPY 440 breakout, 435 pivot 430ish downside target 426 critical support SQQQ 11 DarkPool would be on watch 11.40 also of massive importance (hat tip to Phil in RH for catching SQQQ toping DarkPool that signaled the massive rally)
GOLD- Tried breaking out over the 2046 previous high but stalled at 2050, 2050 is the new and likely more powerful breakout. Losing 2035ish will hamper this setup
IWM- on watch because of SMCI and Regional Banks. Flow has been more Bullish than not. 201 breakout could immediately push 202.5. 198.50 first support, lose 197 and this becomes a potential nightmare
Gamblin Man: Closed BABA for a small win, screwed up a profitable GOOGL position, closed RKLB for a decent gain. Still fiddling with GOLD, KWEB, VOD. Opened a small short on HD, looking to add post LOW’s ER. Gamblin Man is going to be very cautious this week in buying calls of any type. This market feels very toppy after the NVDA ER and subsequent squeeze. Maybe AAPL can pick up the slack, time will tell.
Looking to take advantage of any profit taking and weakness to be offered. And again while I am not going full bear, capital is of max importance to me. Maybe I will blame it on the song on the radio, either way I know that having the ability to be tactical and deploy capital without being over extended has been my key for several years now. Will stick to that game plan for now.
PS: Will be doing a Webinar with RIPSTER on or around March 1 will post more details as they come
For fear your grace should fall
Let's dance
For fear tonight is all
Let's sway
You could look into my eyes
Let's sway
Under the moonlight, this serious moonlight
And if you say run
I'll run with you
And if you say hide
We'll hide
Because my love for you
Would break my heart in two
If you should fall into my arms
And tremble like a flower
HellsBells Cofounder The Roadhouse NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: If you find this information useful and would like live market play by play please dm me @ hellsbells@substack.com Instagram https://twitter.com/HellsBellsBBS BLACKBOXSTOCKS