Market Report 2.23.25
Markets hold Their Breath ahead of NVDA and critical Economic Data and my America
Wasn’t last week awesome? Like, seriously cool? New all-time highs for the Nasdaq and S&P, data trending in the right direction for rate cuts—everything was looking solid. Then, out of nowhere, the bottom fell out, and a failed technical breakout wiped away a week’s worth of gains in just a few hours on Friday.
Was it options expiration? Basic profit-taking? Geopolitical jitters, domestic policy concerns, or just our Pink Polo boys—Brad, Chad, and Thad—repricing options while cashing in on a mini rally?
Only time will tell if this is a "buy the dip" moment or the start of a correction. We’ve asked this question plenty of times over the past year, and each time, the market has roared back with a short squeeze following liquidation breaks—just like we saw on Friday.
So many times, it happens too fast
You trade your passion for glory
Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past
You must fight just to keep them alive
The Week That Was:
Econ Data while limited came in ever so slightly weak- which in theory should boost hopes for rate cuts
WMT- Offered weak guidance based on anticipated consumer spending weakness
UNH took a major hit as the market found them guilty before the proposed audit into their billing practices even began. Not a great look for one of the biggest criminal enterprises in America.
Financials took a hit as the Trump admin decided to keep Biden-era M&A regulations in place. A real buzzkill for the Pink Polo boys—turns out they won’t be able to operate as fast and loose under Trump as they expected. And worst of all? It’s cutting into the forward pricing of their cocaine and date rape slush funds… allegedly, of course.
Chinese equities put on a show as BABA reemerges as a juggernaut with even Jack Ma being allowed to show his face in public
No i will not give up the chocolate cookie recipe…
MRNA and a few others got a pop off a potential new COVID thingy in China…
The Week Ahead:
NVDA ER- doesn’t get too much bigger than this for the Tech sector. I am sure they will beat and guide for growth, the question is will the markets pay the freight
Geopolitics Stuff- too much to list….
Domestic Data: Heavy Data: PCE, New Homes, Sales Durable Good, employment, Retail and Wholesale inventories . this week will offer a true glimpse into the economy and how inflation up against the consumer an forecasting the pace of rates. Big week for a “ Data Dependent” Federal Reserve
Foreign Data- Global Markets have outperformed the US thus far in 2025. This week nearly every nation offers something to either add or take away from future central bank monetary policy
EU- CPI GDP
Canada- GDP
Japan- CPI
China PMI’s
Too often, we overuse terms like "binary" or "macro" when describing market-defining moments. This week and the next will provide a clear answer on how markets have priced in the perceived state of the economy and forward corporate earnings.
NVDA plays a major role in this, alongside the broader stability of the global economy from both a monetary and political standpoint. Germany’s election could also weigh heavily on the minds of investors and funds.
I’m not here to hype anything, but this week is truly pivotal in understanding the direction of central banks and the reshuffling of our geopolitical landscape. Head on a swivel especially after Fridays melt down.
From the Desk of Total
This week, I’m approaching my entry a bit differently. Last week’s market action could serve as a wake-up call for many investors—a healthy reminder that taking profits is rarely a bad move. I often find myself frustrated by my tendency to sell too early, missing out on potential upside in trades. But after a week like the last one, taking profit just feels better .
This week I thought I would highlight three charts and an index that caught my attention. In my view, last week’s volatility presents a great opportunity to review charts, reassess stocks that may have gotten away from you, and determine whether it makes sense to re-enter or if the downside now looks more compelling. Below are a few charts that stood out to me. I would recommend doing your own homework and monitoring market flow to gauge broader sentiment.
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
The small-cap sector gets a lot of chatter—bullish, bearish, you name it. This week’s pullback brought IWM right back to the upward trendline it’s been riding. Could it dip further to $215 or even to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level? Possibly. My point here is: watch the chart and track the flow. Small caps tend to thrive with fewer regulations and lower interest rates—both of which could be on the longer-term horizon.
FDX (FedEx Corporation)
I flagged FDX this week in the Roadhouse, noting its bounce off the $245 level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On Friday, FedEx and other transport stocks faced significant downside pressure after news broke that Amazon might enter the Less Than Truckload (LTL) business. For context, LTL refers to shipping loads that don’t fill an entire truck, a price-sensitive segment with softening demand. Another player in this space could spell trouble for trucking firms. That said, FDX trades at 14x earnings, has $4 billion remaining in its share repurchase program, and bounced at a technically intriguing level. Earnings are slated for March 20—keeping an eye on the flow and seeing how it reacts next week could pose opportunities.
C (Citigroup Inc.)
Citigroup spent 30 days grinding from $79 to $84, only to erase that progress in just 48 hours. However, the stock boasts a multi-year $20 billion share repurchase program—roughly 13% of its market cap—and trades at a reasonable 13x earnings. This drop could be an opportunity for those who missed its post-earnings rally. Watching flow and seeing how this reacts this week will be key to either wait for a full pullback to $77 or it starts working its way back up again
CL (Colgate-Palmolive Company)
Trading at 24x earnings with $900 million left in its share repurchase program, Colgate-Palmolive stood out on Friday, finishing green as investors rotated into defensive names. It recently broke above a trendline I’ve been tracking and has held the $85 level consistently this year. While 24x might seem pricey, I wouldn’t underestimate consumer resilience in 2025.
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or other qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
My Take: The first few lines from Mr. Total say it all—take your profits, or better yet, protect them. A bird in the hand is always better than two in the bush.
Straight up, I hate all these charts except for CL. They all look like they could be pushed off a cliff. CL, on the other hand, fits into the boomer defensive trade, which still matters during uncertain times and offers a decent yield.
Chart of the Week: QQQ & SMH
We got the breakout we wanted, only to watch it immediately deteriorate. Friday’s price action was brutal for the technical setup—failed breakout, followed by a drop that couldn’t even hold the previous consolidation zone. That creates significant pressure moving forward.
However we did hold the 50 Day with some room to spare and still well above lower trendline support.
Must hold above 524 or a sell to 518 and below are imminent
Rally will trigger if Bull can reclaim 529ish would open the door to 533 which would be an another battle ground.
SMH:
With NVDA reporting this week all eyes will be on one of the most lagging sectors in the market. Odd to think the sector that will carry global markets for the next century are down, lets see what the chart says.
We have spent a month trying to renter the Nov 23 low trendline and have failed. Now perched just above the 50 day for the 10,000th time we hold our breath for NVDA. This chart is extremely vulnerable, but that also means its extremely dangerous to front run ahead of NVDA.
Risin' up, straight to the top
Had the guts, got the glory
Went the distance, now I'm not gonna stop
Just a man and his will to survive
Do I really need to beat a dead horse and talk about how deeply disturbing it is that the current administration disregards the concept of three equal branches of government? Or how Project 2025 is off to a roaring start? Or how while government reform is needed to check the obesity of the government bureaucracy this is not the way? Probably not—there will be plenty of opportunities to dive into these topics, but for now, I’ll just say this: Trump and his crew are getting close to overplaying their hand before the real games even begin. I personally am hearing grumblings from Trump supports that I never thought possible…
Instead, take a walk with me through a piece of my childhood.(Market Stuff Ends Here, Read at your own Discretion)
my America
Now, my dad didn’t take me to a lot of movies. In fact, there’s only one I vividly remember him taking me to—Rocky IV. It was a glorious day, but what made it special wasn’t just the film itself or the time spent hanging with him, which was always special; it was the unity in that theater. Everyone understood what the movie was really about. It was USA vs. USSR. It was good vs. evil. Truth vs. lies.
Watching that film on the big screen was larger than life—two men representing their nations, fighting not just for themselves but for everything their countries stood for. Rocky wasn’t just fighting Drago; he was fighting for pride, his fallen brother in arms, for his country, for America’s place as the leader of the free world.
That day, and that movie, came flooding back this week when Trump did exactly what I expected—siding with Vlad and Russia, saying things like Ukraine started the war or calling Zelensky a dictator while slathering Vlad is baby oil like he was at a Diddy party. Fun fact you don't have to like Ukraine to understand how truly evil Russia is.
Last week, I talked about traditional Americans. Well, I guess I’m a real traditional American because I remember nuke drills in elementary school because of Russia. I remember watching Red Dawn and knowing communism was everything we were not. I remember Maverick flipping off a MiG, inverted, in Top Gun. Also remember that blue shaded scene with Kelly McGillis that had me ready to buy a motorcycle, pretend that I like volleyball and join the military… that’s a story for another day…
These movies, and Russia’s actions over the decades, left me with one undeniable understanding: Russia, communism, and everything they stand for are a direct threat to the Western world and democracy. And that lesson? Fuck Russia.
As long as America stands, we do not capitulate to Russia. Not in any capacity. Not ever. Anyone who even suggests otherwise wouldn’t have been invited to my birthday party as a kid, and they sure as hell wouldn’t be handed the keys to my America—my red, white, and blue, my apple pie, my Ford Mustang, or my Bo Derek.
Now, there’s a small section of this country that will try to downplay Trump’s words, excuse his constant need to lick Vlad’s taint. But those people? They’re not real Americans. They hate their own countrymen so much, they’d rather side with a sadistic, power-hungry cum bucket like Putin.
These morons actually believe that to end the war, Russia must get what it wants first—which means sacrificing Ukraine and a pivotal barrier between communist ideology and the West. Some even go so far as to disparage efforts to stop Vlad and blame Ukraine instead. And honestly, we shouldn’t be surprised. It’s the same bullshit argument these same fucktards use to blame rape victims instead of rapists.
"Well, did you see what she was wearing? She was asking for it."
Yeah, those pieces of shit.
So let’s break it down:
Ukraine wants to be a free nation with a Westernized government and society.
Vlad wants to rebuild the USSR, one stolen territory at a time.
Ukraine said, Fuck off, we don’t want to be part of you.
Russia responded by trying to kidnap and rape Ukraine into submission.
Now Russia is trying to convince Trump to look the other way—or even better, join in—on the violation of the only thing geographically standing between Vlad and the rest of Europe. Hardly surprising, considering Trump’s history with this kind of thing…. remember he and his buddy Jeffrey like ‘em young…
The only thing that’s slowed them down? Western aid and economic sanctions.
The same people pushing to abandon Ukraine are the same people who have lost touch with what America is. Our flag means something to the world because we don’t back down, we don’t capitulate, and we fight for freedom.
So yeah—anyone trying to normalize Vlad, making excuses for a genocidal rapist, was probably cheering for Drago to kill Rocky, for Maverick to get shot down, and for Patrick Swayze and his ragtag band of patriots to be wiped out.
These people do not represent America. And they sure as fuck aren’t invited to my birthday party—or any event I ever organize.
Fun fact Ukraine has a constitution with 5 year terms, 2024 marked the first year an election was not held because once again their constitution states that election could not be held during wartime. A war they did not start…. Kind of funny how Vlad and people like Trump think people are oblivious to their own words and actions. Trump refused to leave office and has hinted many times “we will see how it goes” in regards to his term and if Vance would be his successor. And Vlad… the dude just imprisons and kills anyone who opposes him in his “free and fair elections”… So tell me, how exactly do YOU spell dictator?
And for any misguided ball washers who want to debate this with me? Let’s go. I want to see just how far you can get your tongue up Putin’s ass before you gag on your own hatred for my country and everything it stands for.
America stands for freedom, resilience, and never backing down from tyranny. Anyone excusing Putin’s actions or advocating for capitulation has forgotten what this country represents. If you’re siding with Russia which also means looking the other way on Ukraine, you were never on our side to begin with.
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or other qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
HellsBells Cofounder The Roadhouse NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: If you find this information useful and would like live market play by play please dm me @ hellsbells@substack.com Instagram https://twitter.com/HellsBellsBBS BLACKBOXSTOCKS
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