Market Report 4/20/25
Spring Has Sprung, Conviction Hasn’t
Well, it's Easter, so I’m going to keep this as short as I can. It’s also finally spring in my neck of the weeds, which means plenty of winter clean-up ahead. Spring in places like New Hampshire is just different—birds return from the south, animals start migrating again, and the first flowers push through after a long, and annoying winter.
No song this week, however I do need to address the comments I got from last weeks song. Listen I had no idea what coco melon was… or what it meant to parent now adays, talk about some PTSD for some of yall… more on this below…
The Week That Was
Powell continues to do nothing. At this point, it feels almost out of spite—like he’s itching for a fight with the administration.
Trade news remains noise. A never-ending game of misdirection with no meaningful progress. In other words: nothing has changed.
Semiconductors flashed mixed signals. This week’s theme? Giveth, taketh away.
UNH posted a rough earnings report. No spin necessary—it was just weak.
Volume was light. Short week, low participation.
Social headlines? Plenty, and many hard to digest. Skipping them this week.
The Week Ahead
Iran negotiations aren’t going terribly, depending on which outlet you read.
Trade discussions? No one knows. Not even the ones allegedly doing the negotiating.
Markets traded down for the week. From a chart perspective, it was constructive—but reflective of the broader environment.
Earnings in Focus: TSLA, GE, GOOGL, BA, ABBV, PM
A healthy mix, and guidance will be the main attraction—especially for companies with tariff exposure. Wouldn’t be surprised if some opt to skip guidance altogether. Honestly, it's nearly impossible to project anything right now. Even a lemonade stand would struggle to forecast earnings given how volatile the costs of lemons, sugar, and cups have become. Now try that with global supply chains.
Domestic Data to Watch
PMIs
Home Sales
Durable Goods
Jobless Claims
Inflation Expectations
It’s a light calendar, but even minor surprises could bring volatility.
Foreign Data to Watch
Most of Europe is closed Monday
Retail Sales (EU + Canada) — tariff implications possible
Tokyo CPI
IMF Meetings
A full lineup of Fed speakers
Zooming Out
Not much has changed. Hopes for progress on trade last week were quickly deflated. It’s hard to move forward when your negotiating team can’t clearly articulate what it actually wants. “Fair trade” is catchy, but what does that mean when the real play seems to be global decoupling from China?
Money flow is mirroring this confusion. There's a notable lack of conviction on both sides—bulls and bears alike. Combine that with earnings season and you get a market environment that's tough to read. We’re squarely in the hurry up and wait phase—volume drops, everyone’s cautious, and we’re trying to figure out how long this messy trade reset will take.
The charts are beginning to structure nicely. Now the narrative just needs to catch up. And yeah—that means clarity on trade, and what the world looks like on the other side of it.
From The Desk of Total
This week, I’ll be closely watching AbbVie’s (ABBV) earnings release to decide if it’s time to take a long position in the stock. One reason I’m interested in ABBV heading into this ER is the pre-announcement on April 3rd, where they cut FY25 EPS guidance to $11.99–$12.19 from $12.12–$12.32 (versus $12.30 expected) and Q1 EPS to $2.34–$2.38 from $2.47–$2.51 (versus $2.51 expected), due to a ~13 cents per share charge for acquired IPR&D and milestone expenses. While the guidance cut isn’t ideal, the market has had two weeks to digest this news, potentially reducing volatility around the upcoming ER since the stock has already reacted.
ABBV’s large aesthetics business, driven by Botox and Juvederm, is vulnerable to economic downturns, as these elective procedures and drugs can face headwinds when consumer spending tightens. However, the pre-announcement gives investors a clearer window into upcoming guidance and results, removing some uncertainty from this earnings report. Beyond aesthetics, ABBV has a robust portfolio with Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Humira driving significant revenue—Skyrizi and Rinvoq alone generated $17.7 billion in 2024 and Humira adding another $9B. Additionally, despite being late to the obesity market, ABBV’s partnership with Gubra on GUB014295 (an amylin analog weight loss drug) showed a 3% weight loss in a Phase 1 single-dose study, with interim data expected in H1 2025. ABBV is also advancing ABBV-951 for advanced Parkinson’s disease, with its most advanced Phase 3 trial set for primary completion in April 2026.
What makes ABBV potentially compelling right now is its valuation—trading at 14x 2025 EPS estimates—with a 3.79% dividend yield, $2.1 billion remaining on its share buyback program (average execution price of $173.82), and some clarity provided by the pre-announcement. For a drug stock, understanding the pipeline, trials, and customer reception is critical. ABBV-951 could address unmet needs in Parkinson’s, while Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to gain traction in immunology (e.g., Skyrizi’s rapid remission in Crohn’s disease). The stock has a Street price target of $211 and has held a five-year upward trendline, showing technical resilience.
Trading ahead of an ER in this volatile market, especially with the report due this Friday, April 25, 2025, carries risks and patience could be needed. However, the pre-announcement mitigates some uncertainty, making ABBV a potentially less volatile name in the market. This ER will offer further clues about ABBV’s future, and with its strong dividend and diversified pipeline, it could be a solid long-term bet for common shareholders seeking stability and income over the long haul.
Best of luck to everyone!
PS : this line from last week is interesting :
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My Take:
I am neutral on this name, however I would like to see it pull into the 135-150 zone to accumulate. That could trigger a conviction buy for me but at 170ish its too in the middle for my liking.
Chart of the Week QQQ
Last week, we saw a couple of attempts to break above the sell trendline, and each time it was rejected. The midweek hit to semiconductors was the nail in the coffin—for now. That said, we did manage to put in a higher low on the weekly, which is about as glass-half-full as it gets.
Plan
Bull Case:
A clean break above 449 is key. That sets up a challenge of the orange trendline, opening the door for a run toward the 468 zone. I’d expect some overshoot here, but that move would likely reject and consolidate as the chart works through a proper market structure shift—potentially setting up a true push back to 500+ territory.
Bear Case:
440 is the critical pivot. Bears need to control that level. A break below opens up tests of 433, 424, 417, and ultimately 408.
You'll also notice a large volume imbalance on the 4-hour chart. This came off the back of slightly improved trade news. And while it’s a stretch to say the situation is “great,” there’s clearly been a tone shift in the conversations—that does matter.
Why? Because if those talks deteriorate again, we’ll likely fill that imbalance to the downside. On the flip side, earnings could just as easily shove us back into that lower zone. All of this underscores the broader theme: the market lacks real conviction right now.
For the first time in many weeks, I don’t have a strong bias heading into Monday. Too many variables still in play. That said—based on current chart structure and a handful of recent dark pool prints on SQQQ (the inverse of QQQ)—if 37.50 is lost and can’t be reclaimed, I’ll lean heavily bullish.
There’s structure forming. I can see a light at the end of the tunnel—but I can’t yet tell if it’s daylight or a freight train barreling our way. Time will tell.
Last Weeks Song:
So I was actually trying to find a 1950s version of this song, but that bizarre animated video kept popping up. I finally caved and watched it—and within 30 seconds, I felt like I was having LSD flashbacks.
Now listen here, parents: What the hell are you doing to your kids?
My generation grew up on Bugs Bunny, Wile E. Coyote, Elmer Fudd, Tom and Jerry… real stuff that prepped us for the real world. A world where things are tough, violent, unpredictable—and where actions actually have consequences.
Those cartoons taught me more than you’d think:
Don’t overthink everything—execution matters more than a bold plan (looking at you, Wile E. Coyote).
If you're lost in a blizzard, there might be a loyal St. Bernard with bourbon coming to save you.
(That one hasn't happened yet, but I’m still holding out hope.)
Anyway, for the love of all that’s decent—stop poisoning kids’ minds with this hyper-animated, acid-trip nonsense. If I’m having flashbacks 25 years later from just 30 seconds of this crap, what do you think it’s doing to developing minds? Or to your own sanity?
Keep it up, and I swear I’ll find a way to loop "Baby Shark" in your head forever.
Final Thought, Not for Everyone, Even though it Should be….
Days like Christmas and Easter have always been interesting to me. From Methodist youth groups to a Catholic high school, to a Baptist college—I’ve studied religion quite a bit.
In fact, I think I failed Old Testament twice in college. It wasn’t until I had a wise professor who explained it in a way I could actually grasp that it started to click. He told me, “Stop looking at everything from a historical standpoint. Read it like literature and discover what it means for you. I promise I won’t fail you if you show that you’re genuinely exploring the words. Just don’t rebuke everything because you think it’s nothing but fairy tales.”
That was a profound conversation, and I’m grateful to him for working with me. I needed that class to graduate.
And while I’m not religious and consider myself more spiritual, there’s one person who, through all those studies, really stuck with me.
Jesus.
Now hold on—this isn’t a sermon. Trust me. I was told as a kid by a “friend” that I was going to hell because I didn’t accept Jesus as my Lord and Savior. Later on, a girlfriend took issue with the fact that I wasn’t baptized. All of it felt pretty exclusionary to me.
But even with all that, I’ve always found the messaging around Jesus incredibly interesting—when you really take the time to understand it.
Because Jesus? He was just a cool cat—maybe the coolest of them all, if I’m being honest. And is it a coincidence that Easter—the day Jesus rose—lands on 4/20 this year? I THINK NOT.
Yeah, yeah—I’ll wrap it up. Look, plenty of people have twisted his teachings, distorted his words, and weaponized his message for their own gain. But none of that changes the core of what he was about: Love. That’s it. Just love.
If we could return to that one simple, powerful idea—love thy neighbor—and actually understand how far-reaching and transformative that could be… maybe the world would be a little less full of hypocrisy, greed, and hate.
And no, you don’t have to go to church, or get baptized, or speak in tongues, or handle rattlesnakes, or take on a hundred wives. Great joke there, but will let it pass… What we can all do is just try to be kind to one another.
America’s a heavily Christian country. You’d think basic decency and compassion would come a little easier. Yet when I turn on any of the “news” stations all I hear is fear mongering based on ignorance and hypocrisy. So let’s try to make it easy on ourselves and our neighbors. Let’s try to avoid hypocrisy and remember that our “neighbors” include people of all kinds—not just those who share our beliefs.
Can we try?
HellsBells Cofounder The Roadhouse NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: If you find this information useful and would like live market play by play please dm me @ hellsbells@substack.com Instagram https://twitter.com/HellsBellsBBS BLACKBOXSTOCKS
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