Market Report 5.26.25
Tariff Whiplash and I Remember a Good Friend
The Quiet Miracle of Waking
Each morning, we pass through a familiar rhythm… the body stirs, the mind lags behind. For a few seconds, we’re all equal in that quiet space between sleep and awareness.
Then thought returns. The day rushes in…plans, worries, fragments of the past. Emotions follow: hope, dread, anticipation. The mind begins to map a path forward—unaware of how easily life’s random turns can shift everything.
And yet, the simple act of waking—to think, to feel, to choose—is a miracle we rarely acknowledge. Too often, we take it for granted. But it deserves our thanks. In that small, daily renewal lies the quiet power to shape a life.
The Week Ahead
NVDA
All eyes are on Nvidia earnings. Quarterly, it has become the most significant reporting company on the planet. Of note: rumors are circulating about a new Blackwell chip designed specifically for China.
The Fed
Several FOMC speakers are scheduled, and minutes from the last meeting will be released on Wednesday.
Domestic Data
GDP – Critically important in light of current economic policy uncertainty with debt moving in the wrong direction.
Durable Goods Orders – May give us a window into how much demand was pulled forward ahead of “Tariff Palooza.”
Consumer Confidence – Recent readings have been poor, but in today’s environment, a cautious consumer is healthier than an exuberant one.
Core PCE & PMIs – We may begin to see early signs of tariff policy impacts in the inflation data and supply inputs. The jury’s still out, but both sides of the economic debate are looking for something to latch onto.
Jobless Claims – The labor market's resilience continues to surprise both economists and market participants.
Legislative Watch: "Big Beautiful Bill"
The bill heads to the Senate this week. Odds of passage in its current form are low, as it lacks full GOP support.
Bitcoin- Vance headlines yet another Trump admin initiative to pump crypto. It would be naive to think they all didn’t have a vested interest in is success.
Geopolitics
Russia–Ukraine – Trump is reportedly irritated he misjudged Putin. Who knew.
Trade Relations – Trump extended the EU tariff window over the weekend. Japan and South Korea appear to be building the framework for new trade deals. Canada and Mexico remain relatively quiet.
Market Summary
The Wall of Worry is very real. Last week brought a meaningful pullback of over 2% across the indices, but structurally, support levels are holding. Trump’s announcement on the EU tariff reprieve could provide the lift needed to regain much—if not all—of that ground.
But with a packed data calendar and NVDA earnings in focus, we’re stepping into another week where rollercoaster volatility is expected. Options flow reveals heavy positioning on both sides—bulls and bears—adding to the murkiness of the landscape.
Smart traders are beginning to recognize a developing technical range. I’ll break that down further in Chart of the Week below.
From the Desk of Mr Total:
Writing about great companies you believe might face challenges is never easy, especially for me. This week, I’m focusing on one of my favorite retailers, Gap, due to recent trends in retail stocks.
Consider these examples from recent earnings reports:
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) pre-released results, withdrew guidance, cited higher promotional activity, and announced costs tied to closing fulfillment centers. The stock dropped 17% in two weeks.
Ross Stores (ROST) reported a slight beat on revenue and EPS but withdrew full-year guidance due to tariff uncertainty, providing only next-quarter guidance, which was lower. The stock fell 16% initially, later recovering to a 10% loss.
Ralph Lauren (RL) posted strong beats on revenue and EPS, raised guidance, increased its dividend by 10%, and expanded its share repurchase program by $1.5 billion. Despite this, the stock dipped 4% initially, closing down 1.5%.
TJX Companies (TJX) slightly beat revenue and EPS expectations, affirmed short- and long-term guidance, and noted a strong Q2 start but assumed tariff pressures through 2026. The stock fell about 4%.
While these aren’t Gap, they highlight a trend: Retail stocks face selling pressure post-earnings, with poor performers dropping sharply and even strong performers declining modestly.
Gap’s stock is currently $1.50 below its one-year high, trading at a 12.8x multiple, compared to a median of 10.58x for peers. If Gap, which has been performing well, reports slight beats on revenue and EPS and affirms guidance, its multiple could re-rate lower or simply retrace a fib line or two .
Gap is an iconic American brand, deeply woven into countless families’ lives. Regardless of this quarter’s outcome, its new CEO, the founding Fisher family, and the company’s resilience will carry it forward. However, retail stocks currently face headwinds from tariff uncertainty, limiting their growth and valuation potential.
This week, I’ll monitor order flow for Gap and other retail stocks. I’ll also track the earnings results and stock reactions of retailers reporting before Gap’s earnings on Thursday after the close, including Macy’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, Burlington Stores, and Kohl’s. These outcomes ahead of Gap could offer valuable insights.
Best of luck to everyone
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or other qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
My Take:
You remember when Total offered GAP as an upside trade in the report several months ago? I do. You remember what happened? I remember that also—he killed yet another trade. I was neutral on GAP, and nothing has really changed on that front.
Aside from my brief time with GAP as a teenager—when I refined my ability to expertly size women’s jeans to properly accentuate their contours—I still don’t have too much to offer, other than to say that fading Total or dismissing his ideas is a fool’s errand.
Chart of the Week: QQQ
Last week, we called for a cool off on QQQ and that’s exactly what we got. QQQ was pushing up against a well-established 2-year trendline after a powerful run. It made multiple attempts to break through... and failed. That failure gave us a fresh playing field.
As discussed, retracements like this can actually be very bullish for chart structure. We're now filling in several gaps and imbalances while approaching others.
News over the weekend gave Sunday night futures a strong pop—ironically, right back into a major resistance zone in the 515–517 range. Considering we closed Friday at 508, that’s a serious move—and it leaves yet another imbalance below.
The Plan
Bull Case
If futures hold firm and QQQ can take and hold 515, we have a strong chance of revisiting 518, a significant point of control. If we clear that, we could fill the gap at 522 and potentially challenge the yellow trendline. That could trigger a powerful breakout.
Bear Case
Any sharp rejection at 518, 522, or 525 should be viewed as an opportunity for the bears. A breakdown below 513 opens the door to test Fridays close(508) then last week’s low near 503, with a downside target in the 490s—which still contains a large weekly gap.
My Bias
Personally, I believe we're range-bound between 522 and 490(about 6%) for the foreseeable future—unless a major catalyst hits. That could be trade developments, economic data, NVDA earnings, or Fed policy. All will add to the ongoing tug-of-war playing out in the charts.
But unless we break that range, talk of all-time highs or an SPX collapse to 4800 feels more like delusional noise than rational analysis.
Either way, I’ll be updating this chart (and others) every morning at 8:50am EST in The RoadHouse, with follow-ups throughout the day.
In Memory of Frank
As many of you know, my boy Frank has been struggling with intense seizures over the past several months. Last week, he left us in physical form. But he also left behind the only thing that really matters when we leave this planet: the impact we make on the people—and souls—around us.
For Frank, every day was pure. There was never time to be sad, to dwell, or to do anything but celebrate. And he wasted no time. Every single morning, he greeted each of us with a level of exuberance and kindness unmatched by anything I’ve ever had the pleasure to live alongside.
I remember when we lost Luke, my first puppy puppy. The pain was crushing—deep waves of emotional daggers. I was sobbing in my office, and in came Frank, barreling through the door with his favorite toy in his mouth, tail wagging, dropping into a perfect puppy play pose before tossing it at my feet. That moment is scorched into my memory. And even now, as the pain of this loss pours over me while I write, I know—I know—that Sir Francis (aka The Franchise, aka Frank the Tank) would want me to be smiling and playing.
Nothing as pure and selfless as Frank has ever entered my life. Yes, we’ve had the honor of loving several amazing pups over the years, but none had his gift—his ability to love, to heal, and to give so completely, so unconditionally. He filled our house with joy.
From the moment we woke to the minute we fell asleep, Frank was there, with his overwhelming and joyful presence. Now he’s gone—and a piece of me went with him. But that piece is insignificant compared to what he gave me.
Thank you, Frank, for always being by my side and ready for the next adventure. Thank you for lifting me up when I was low, for celebrating when I was high. Thank you for reminding me—again and again—that real joy is being with the ones you love and bacon… cant forget about the bacon…. Thank you for looking at me like I was great, even when I didn’t feel that way. And thank you for helping raise Merlin into the incredible soul he is today.
Your contributions to this home, to our lives, will live forever in our hearts. I know Merlin will one day be an incredible mentor to our next pup, and it will be because of you, my friend.
The lady played this song for me the other day, and it felt like it was written just for Frank:
Oh, I want to thank you for so many gifts you gave—
The love, the tenderness, I want to thank you
I want to thank you for your generosity, the love,
And the honesty that you gave me
I want to thank you, show my gratitude,
My love and my respect for you. I want to thank you...
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Thank you, my boy. May your next adventure be as grand for you as your time with us was for us.
THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YUUU.
HellsBells Cofounder The Roadhouse NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: If you find this information useful and would like live market play by play please dm me @ hellsbells@substack.com Instagram https://twitter.com/HellsBellsBBS BLACKBOXSTOCKS
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