3.3.24
Oh the fun and games of the market and if you really dig deep, life in general. But that might be too much for many to see the overall throughline of how even the most obvious outcomes can be so hard to digest. Last week's theme delivered so perfectly by Mr. Bowie and Let’s Dance gave a glimpse into what the market looks like as it decides the next move. Bulls & Bears locked in gridlock, exchanging sloppy jabs. That was the consolidation through Wednesday, only for Bull to offer the knockout blow once again to Bears on Thursday and Friday. Make no mistake, this was a true battle, but Bull wanted it more and – for the moment – sent Bear to the canvas. So much respect for Bowie Let's sway, While color lights up your face, Let's sway. Sway through the crowd to an empty space, If you say run, I'll run with you, And if you say hide. We'll hide… Truly masterful…
The Week That Was:
Econ Data continues to point toward contraction of the US economy.
Home Sales Data - Miss
Durable Goods Orders - Miss
Consumer Confidence - Miss
GDP QoQ - Miss
Jobs Data - Miss
PCE - Inline
ISM/PMI - Miss
Semis continue to dominate the landscape to the upside
SMCI added to the S&P
AAPL finding new ways to lick the pavement
Bitcoin Rally Continued, Japan Rally Continued, Nasdaq Rally Continued
Wendy’s tells Kellogg’s “hold my beer” with its surge pricing brilliance
What I Got Wrong:
AAPL refuses to join the party(was up over 50% on AAPL calls and watched them get destroyed on an overnight GS headline)
No Chill in Semis
Waiting for a pullback on Friday and never getting it…. Despise trend days…. Missed opportunity for me to put in a record week for myself
What I Got Right:
Levels offered last week: SPOT GOLD, QQQ, SPY, IWM were near perfect
SPOT GOLD breakout to the upside
ARM flow was excellent
DELL flow was excellent
META flow and price action continues to push; 495C hit (called when trading ~489) Hook or Crook type flow
China PMI data was encouraging
Flow:
Honestly, I wasn't really enamored with anything. Flow remains bullish as a whole, but light on upside targets, with April weakness still lurking. The game seems to be, hold AAPL and TSLA inverse to semis, then hold semis and pump AAPL and TSLA. We saw this all last week intraday. That keeps the market balanced and able to push higher. The idea that semis alone could carry us another 10-20% seems crazy, but this run has also been crazy with SMH up 4% Friday for no discernible reason.. Having said it over and over, the traditional mega cap needs to step up. On watch for TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN flow as the week develops. Phil will cover 2 of these names below.
From Phil’s Lob Wedge:
(Phil is a contributing member of The RoadHouse)
On Thursday, AAPL had its largest trade of all time at 180.75. I am looking for a retest of that level, a retest and hold would eventually target all time highs. A retest and failure would target 171 and the daily 377 below..
TSLA printed its largest trade since December Opex at 201.88, currently above. A hold of this level would eventually target 226. A failure eventually targets 180
And when you're high, you never
Ever want to come down
So down, so down, so down, yeah
What I Will Be Watching:
Gold vs Dollar trade, Gold looks strong the dollar look weak
China potential breakout after an inside-ish week
AVGO and MRVL ERs: can the semis craze continue?
Retail earnings and guidance: KR, TGT, ROSS, COST, ANF (this chart might be the dumbest in the market)
More Fed speak, including two days of Powell testifying before Congress
ECB rate decision and statement
Jobs Data: JOLTS & Non Farm Payrolls
Crypto: some of the memecoins are getting action again; Lord help us…
What I Think I Think:
Make no mistake, this market is The Jungle, You learn to live like an animal
In the jungle where we play or you get the Serpentine… Remember this as the days and weeks progress, in the Jungle even the most formidable and strong eventually are brought to their knees. This does not mean I believe the bottom will fall out of the markets, this specifically refers to being nimble and agile instead of feeling unstoppable. The Jungle is bigger and stronger than we'll ever know and devours souls and accounts like an anaconda taking out a jaguar.
Levels:
Not offering any new levels this week; last week's levels are still in play with the breakouts serving as support. I will go over my weekly plan with RoadHouse on the morning show tomorrow.
Federales:
The tone of this group continues to be dense at a deafening pace. The data misses highlighted above should (under normal circumstances) scream “trouble ahead.” Nevertheless, they are steadfast in offering no relief to the American people. PCE proved yet again that inflation was never really a byproduct of the consumer overspending but more a product of corporate greed. Even Wendy's dumb idea of surge pricing speaks to this principle. Maybe they pull their head out of their asses, most likely not.
On another note, I saw a commercial for
https://americanscantaffordit.com/
I need to dig more into this, but on the surface it appears that the Fed wants higher capitalization from banks. In theory (as the ad suggests), this will drive borrowing costs up for American citizens with banks passing along the cost to consumers. This is yet another Fed initiative to steal from the American people. Like I said, I am still digging into this – and it might be nothing – but if the Fed's mandate is indeed Price Stability & Full Employment, then why are they constantly attacking the engine of the economy, the consumer? I know the answer to this, and it has everything to do with price gouging and greedflation – both of which the Fed has no ability to fix. Capitalism being stimulated by corporate welfare is the most dangerous threat to individual freedom. More on this perhaps another day…
Gamblin’ Man:
Closed VOD for nearly 30%, on watch for another entry. Still playing with KWEB; time is running out on this trade. It needs to make its move or will be forced to cover out … same with TSLA. Covered the AAPL fiasco thing… Gold had a nice explosion, looking for continuation. Closed HD short for a loss… Outside of that Gamblin’ Man and I are chill, not looking to add any new positions unless I see something amazing or have conviction. Right now I see neither that suits my eye, but tomorrow is a new day. My plan to preserve capital might be the wrong plan, maybe we rocket up without a pull back of any consequence. But I have to do me, and I encourage you to do you.
PS: Vlad Putin is a despicable piece of shit Had to fit that in somewhere…
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